UK Defence Journal

By George Allison

13 December 2024

Source: https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/nato-warns-we-are-not-ready-for-what-is-coming-our-way/

In a sobering address delivered in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte cautioned that while the alliance is currently secure, it is unprepared for the escalating dangers expected in the coming years.

Speaking on 12 December, Rutte issued a stark warning, saying, “We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years. Danger is moving towards us at full speed.”

Rutte highlighted the growing threats posed by Russia’s military resurgence, China’s rapid armament, and increasing cyber-attacks, warning that the alliance must adopt a “wartime mindset” to counter these challenges. 

“What is happening in Ukraine could happen here too,” he said, pointing to the devastating impacts of Russia’s aggression and its long-term ambitions.

The Secretary General commended NATO’s current deterrence measures—expanded deployments, higher readiness levels, and the addition of Finland and Sweden—but stressed their insufficiency in addressing future risks. “Our deterrence is good—for now. But it’s tomorrow I’m worried about,” he said.

He pointed to alarming figures, including Russia’s defence spending projected to reach 7–8% of GDP in 2025, and China’s acquisition of high-end weapons systems at rates far outpacing NATO countries. 

“China is expanding its nuclear arsenal, accelerating space capabilities, and investing heavily in disruptive technologies like AI and quantum computing,” Rutte noted, warning that these advancements threaten NATO’s technological edge.

Rutte also underscored the need to counter Russian influence operations, which he described as “Putin’s biggest success,” saying, “We need a very good assessment of just what Russia is capable of.”

Rutte laid out a roadmap for addressing NATO’s readiness gaps, urging member states to increase defence spending, modernise procurement processes, and invest in innovation. 

“We must turbo-charge our defence production and spending,” he said, criticising outdated procurement practices and fragmented national requirements that slow progress.

He also appealed to citizens to back increased defence spending, arguing that the costs of inaction would be far greater. “If we don’t spend more together now to prevent war, we will pay a much, much higher price later to fight it—not billions, but trillions,” he said.

The speech ended on a resolute note, with Rutte calling on NATO to leverage its collective strength. “We have done it before. We can do it again. But we must act now,” he concluded.