Council on Geostrategy

By Emma Salisbury

20 May 2024

Source: https://www.geostrategy.org.uk/research/chinas-plan-maritime-dominion-beyond-the-south-china-sea/

Foreword

The People’s Republic of China’s naval build-up over the past decade has been substantial. Once a maritime minnow, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) – the Chinese navy – has grown into a shark. 

And that shark is increasingly less constrained. Propelled by a growing auxiliary fleet, the PLAN is becoming increasingly mobile, able to operate well beyond the PRC’s shores and adjacent seas. 

The PLAN may have some way to go to meet the might of the United States (US) Navy or even navies such as the Royal Navy or Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force, especially if supporting the US Navy, but it will only be a matter of time until large Chinese expeditionary fleets are found regularly operating in the world’s oceans.

Written by one of Britain’s most promising maritime analysts, this Policy Paper explores the reasons for why the PRC has embarked on a dramatic naval and maritime expansion programme. 

It looks at how the Chinese battle fleet, coast guard, and maritime militia have grown since 2000, before postulating how the PRC’s newfound naval strength may be used to secure Chinese interests in the decades to come. 

It explains how the PLAN’s transformation will alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, as well as how it may affect the Euro-Atlantic. 

Finally, using His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s ‘strategic framework’ – as per the Integrated Review Refresh of March 2023 – the study identifies how Britain should respond to protect its national interests and secure its strategic objectives in the face of burgeoning Chinese maritime power.

This study should be read by anyone interested in how the PLAN’s growth in size and advancement is accelerating the PRC’s emerging as a systemic challenge. Indeed, it should be seen as a wake up call and a call to action; after all, it should not be forgotten that sea power is world power.

James Rogers
Co-founder and Director of Research, Council on Geostrategy

Editor’s note: The study can be accessed here.