Australian sea blindness in the Red Sea
Australian Naval Institute
By Peter Jones*
5 January 2024
The Navy destroyer Carney shot down a swarm of attack drones Saturday in the Red Sea, U.S. Central Command said. (MC2 Aaron Lau/Navy)
The Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have demonstrated a worrying level of sea blindness among many Australian politicians, policy makers and commentators. By sea blindness I mean the inability to grasp the importance of maritime security and economic issues to the nation.
Just to recap. Since last October Yemini Houthi rebels have fired Iranian supplied ballistic missiles at US forces in Iraq and Syria, as well as at Israel following its military operations in Gaza. US warships in the Red Sea have successfully shot down some of the these missiles.
The Houthis then changed tactics by also attacking merchant shipping transiting the Red Sea and northern Arabian Sea en route or coming from the Suez Canal. These latter attacks have also used Iranian Shahed-136 drones and small boat attacks. As a result of these attacks many of the major shipping companies have paused from using the Suez canal and have elected go around the Cape of Good Hope instead.
For their part the US has formed Operation Prosperity Guardian task force and sought warships from allies and partners to defend merchant shipping. This is to facilitate the environment where there can be the free flow of merchant shipping.
In response to the US request, the Australian Government has decided to only provide personnel to bolster the staff of the Combined Maritime Forces at the US Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain. On 15 December the Defence Minister Richard Marles said Australia’s “focus has been in terms of our naval effort on our immediate region.”
Six days later he explained that our region was the northeast Indian Ocean, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Pacific. This distinction seemed a curious one, noting it excludes the Arabian Gulf where most of our oil reserves are sourced and where over recent decades Australian governments have previously deployed warships.
The Opposition initially criticised this decision and did point out the importance of the Suez route accounting for 12% of global trade. It was circling but not honing in on the nub of the issue. However, on 29 December the Opposition Leader, Peter Dutton then made the link between the Red Sea trade to the Australian economy and the cost of living.
Very few commentators on this issue have grasped the importance of the Red Sea route to Australia and its economy. In addition, some analysts talked about the effect on oil supplies, but most of the oil sourced from that region comes through the Straits of Hormuz further to the east.
What is important is that the vast majority of container ships from Europe use that route rather than via the Cape of Good Hope. While some of our imports and exports to and from Europe come direct via the Red Sea, a sizeable amount come in larger container ships via Singapore where containers are transferred to smaller container ships for Australian ports. The impact of disrupting the Red Sea/Suez route is to add three-four days for direct shipping to Australia and over ten days for those containers going via Singapore.
The value of Australia’s trade with the European Union nations is sizeable. In 2022 Australia’s EU imports in goods amounted to $29 billion and our EU exports was $62 billion. The Red Sea route is a major corridor for this trade. There will therefore be a direct impact on the Australian economy if that route is blocked.
In this context, the decision not to send either a destroyer or frigate to Operation Prosperity Guardian is baffling. In making its decision I do wonder whether the importance of this trade route to Australia was drawn to the attention of the National Security Committee of Cabinet by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. In contrast to Australia, the UK, France, Denmark and Greece have or will all send warships to the mission.
Some people may be wary that involvement in Operation Prosperity Guardian may involve Australia in ‘another American adventure.’ Protecting our trade however is in our direct national interest. More broadly as the US Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austen said, “Countries that seek to uphold the foundational principle of freedom of navigation must come together to tackle the challenge …. This is an international challenge that demands collective action.”
Australia is the fifth biggest user of shipping in the world, yet the knowledge of which trade routes are important to the country for exports, or vital imports that keep our society functioning, does not seem to be appreciated, even it seems by the Government.
This issue reminds me of the Melanesian ‘cargo cult’ whereby seemingly unending supplies of goods always appear. Unfortunately, the real world is not like that. The significance of the Red Sea trade route to our economy needs to be more fully grasped.
As an Indian Ocean nation, Australia should send a warship to Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect Australian bound or originated trade. This is one of the reasons a nation has a navy. Hopefully, the Government does not feel it has painted itself in a corner and will review its position.
*Peter Jones is a retired vice admiral who as a captain commanded the coalition Maritime Interception Force in the 2003 Iraq War. He was the author of the 2022 Protecting Australian Maritime Trade report available at https://navalinstitute.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Protecting-Australian-Maritime-Trade-Report-2022-Final-version.pdf